Category Archives: Oil and water wars

Peak Oil and the Alternatives

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The term “Peak Oil” refers to a global situation where the extraction of oil becomes more difficult and expensive due to dwindling oil reserves. Should the warnings of peak oil be true, the cost of everything from travel to plastic-based household items would increase dramatically. According to peak oil experts, the apex of available oil reserves has already been passed and the ramifications of peak oil will start being felt by consumers across the globe. While some of that pain has been delayed due to recessions and slower growth in the world’s large economies, these experts expect that economic recovery will spur greater demand from an increasing number of people. This, combined with decreasing supplies of the resource in demand will result in a spiral of increasing prices.

Peak oil is not a new concept, with the peak in U.S. production in 1970 predicted by M. King Hubbard in 1956. At the time, the U.S. was the world’s largest oil producer and the declining production ignited oil exploration and production across the globe, particularly the Middle East and Mexico. The two largest oil fields in the world, Ghawar in Saudi Arabia and Cantarell in Mexico were brought on line in relatively quick order.

Peak oil has largely been dismissed by global governments and OPEC but there is persuasive evidence that that these two fields and others ranked in top ten of the world’s largest oil reserves are producing ever decreasing amounts of petroleum. The decreased production at these fields is also important due to the fact that they produced the cleanest and highest quality oil. Cantarell peaked in 2004 with production dropping drastically ever since. Saudi Arabia does not share data on field production but computer models and overall production levels indicate that the Ghawar Field, which is the world’s largest, peaked in early 2006.

Peak oil continues to be hotly debated but if production levels at these two fields are any indication, the issue cannot be ignored and concentrated efforts must be made to conserve the oil that is left and develop alternatives to fossil fuel.
Increasing miles per gallon and other conservation efforts are gaining traction and are finding their way into mainstream thinking. Alternative energy production, particularly wind and solar, are making inroads as well but their production as a percentage of whole remains in the 1% to 2% area. On a level playing field these two alternatives are still not competitive with power generated by fossil fuel, which is still relatively cheap. These alternatives will become more competitive as technological advances decrease costs but the biggest trigger will probably arrive in the form of skyrocketing energy prices as demand increases.

News by Anthony Ricigliano

Permanent Damage in the Gulf?

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The twin disasters of the April 20th explosion and fire on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig, which killed 11, continue to generate coverage and worries over the long term effects of the blown-out well and the massive oil on the Gulf Coast.

Here are some facts and observations on the spill, the blow-out, and long term ramifications:

  • BP’s original estimates were that oil was pouring out of the well at a rate of 210,000 gallons per day. After challenges by scientists and environmental groups, BP now admits that the spill rate is much higher.
  • Even if BP’s original numbers were correct, an estimated 6 million gallons has leaked so far. That amount is half of the amount spilled by the Exxon Valdez in 1989.
  • BP’s tab for the spill so far stands at $700 million, a number virtually guaranteed to go up.
  • The spill has tainted 150 miles of coastline stretching from Dauphin Island, Alabama to Grande Isle, Louisiana. Oil has penetrated more than 12 miles into Louisiana's sensitive wetlands.
  • The sticky and gooey oil from the spill poses such a cleanup challenge that it may never be removed. While some aggressive cleanup tactics have been proposed such as flooding or setting fire to the wetlands, the long term damage of those actions could outweigh the effects of the spill. Many experts are now resigned to the fact that the best course could be to stand by while the sludge is broken down naturally over a period of years.
  • Expect a bull market for congressional hearings as politicians use the disaster to curry favor with voters in this election year.
  • We can also expect multiple commissions to investigate the spill for the same reasons as the congressional hearings.
  • The loop current, which moves in a clockwise direction, could eventually take the spill to the Florida Keys. In its present position, the current isn’t a threat but a slight change in its trajectory could change all that.
  • BP’s best shot at plugging the blow-out at present is an operation called “top kill”. The planned procedure would shoot in heavy mud to slow the gushing oil followed by cement to seal the pipe.

The sheer force of the blow-out and the depth of the well-head at 5,000 feet have prevented efforts to cap the well until now. Still, one would think that strategies for capping blow-outs would be thought out prior to drilling. That is obviously not the case here, much to the detriment of everything in the oil spill’s path.

By Anthony Ricigliano

Will BP’s Seal Stick?

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By Anthony Ricigliano: After having held gushing oil in place since the middle of July, crews from BP are carefully drilling a secondary relief well which, when completed, will deliver a permanent plug into the oil well that has become the biggest oil spill in U.S. history. The drilling of the last phase of the relief well must be done with extreme caution to ensure that it intersects the broken well line. It is hoped that the relief well can reinforce the initial cap and provide a permanent solution by pumping more mud and cement into the well.

With the oil stopped since July 15th, all eyes will be on the "bottom kill" operation which is designed to both permanently seal the well and allow for options on reopening it in the future. Prior to the temporary seal going in, oil flowed out of the broken well for almost three months after Deepwater Horizon rig, which BP had leased, exploded on April 20. The explosion killed 11 employees on the platform and released over 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf. Investigations are ongoing as whether BP cut corners in their operations in order to save money in the days preceding the blowout.

The first test after the connection of the relief well will be to see if pressure gradually builds up at the point of the seal. The lines which have been releasing oil and gas to surface ships to minimize pressure on the cap would be closed to see if pressure builds naturally within the well.  Increasing pressure would indicate that the two and a half miles of casing which lines the well bore is intact which could lead to an oil capture scheme with surface ships capturing oil from the well. Estimates are that four ships could capture up to 60,000 barrels a day. If pressure does not build in the well it would indicate that the casing is damaged and testing would be halted. The relief lines which have been shut would reopen and testing of the casing would commence.

The operation to finally seal the well should provide relief to the cleanup efforts, but for many the damage has already been done. With the Fall shrimping season set to open on August 16th, many of the fishing grounds will remain closed as federal authorities monitor toxin levels in shrimp, crabs, and other seafood. The reminder of these closures was evident as the pre-season “Blessing of the Boats” ceremonies saw barbequed sausage, chicken, and other items on the menu but no sign of the shrimp and crab dishes that are the traditional fare for the celebrations.

There hasn’t been much talk about future plans for the well but it seems unlikely that it will remain closed permanently. While establishing another rig may be extremely unpopular with residents around the Gulf, the sheer volume of oil in the well and BP’s desire to recoup some of the $6.1 billion in costs related to the blowout make it likely that surface ships will eventually be replaced by another platform along the lines of Deepwater Horizon. One certainty in that situation is that it will be closely watched with highest safety standards possible. BP owes nothing less than that to everyone and everything that has been affected by this ecological disaster.

Author Anthony Ricigliano – Articles and News by Anthony Ricigliano

Sealing the Well Updated – BP

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Author Anthony Ricigliano: The last time I wrote about sealing the BP well that is responsible for the biggest oil spill in U.S. history, the relief well was sitting within four feet of the blowout wellbore. Much to everyone’s surprise, it’s still sitting there After pumping 500 barrels of cement into the casing and announcing that the status of the well was “static” it appeared that the next phase of connecting the relief well to the blowout wellbore was imminent.

Since that time, there has been talk of pressure readings all over the board, a new pressure test, a lot of vague non-answers. That’s when someone is around to answer questions. Kent Wells, who has managed to provide no technical information at BP’s "Technical Briefings" hasn’t been around for almost a week.

The purpose of the "new ambient" pressure test has yet to be defined but hounding spill watchers and the Daily Kos website finally prompted BP to release some information regarding pressure readings but, true to form BP left out basic information such as “the starting point, whether the well is shut in at the surface or seafloor, the fluid in the riser, etc., so the data is pretty much useless”, similar to the other tidbits which have been released over the last four months.

What is known is that there are three aspects of the well which are of concern:

  • The flex joint, right on top of the old stack
  • The riser adapter
  • The transition spool

In every one of the tests BP has conducted, the top kill, the well integrity test, the injectivity tests, and static kill, the pressures that BP announced exceeded the rated pressures of at least one of those components. This means that one or all of these components could rupture as pressure in the well returns to normal.  The focus has now been shifted pressure readings on the blowout protector (BOP) and the talk is now centered on replacing the stack in total before doing anything else.

The changing focus, the delays, and intentional vagueness are alarming and lend to the possibility that BP still doesn’t know how to seal this well permanently. The static kill effort, which may or may not have been successful, remains a mystery as well.  It is also becoming apparent that no one has any idea where all the cement and mud went exactly.  This has complicated efforts on permanently sealing the well and added another element of uncertainty on how to proceed. It all remains to be seen. Everyone appears to be feeling the strain, including Admiral Allen, who is stuck between a public trying to learn as much as possible and BP who either doesn’t know what to say or doesn’t want to say anything at all.

By Anthony Ricigliano

What About Water?

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By Anthony Ricigliano – News By Anthony Ricigliano: The world may never run out of water but an increasing number of people around the world could easily face an extreme shortage of drinkable water. According to Matthew Simmons, an early proponent of “peak oil”, many of the world's largest cities, with populations of more than 10 million people, are currently facing water shortages. The list of cities facing potable water shortages includes Mexico City, Beijing, and Cairo. The World Bank recently reported that 80 countries now have potable water shortages that threaten health, sanitation, and economies and that 40% of the world’s population, approximately two billion people, have no access to clean water or sanitation.

One of the primary causes of the looming global water shortage is the steadily increasing world population. This population growth and the industrial, agricultural and individual water needs which come with it are now doubling demand for water every 21 years, according to World Bank estimates. With the global population currently at six billion and United Nations’ projections for nine billion people by 2050, the justified fear is that water supplies will not be able to keep pace with demand, as populations soar and cities explode. Water supplies will continue to tighten as countries around the world continue to develop and raise their standard of living, as well. Like oil, the United States is a huge user of water on a per capita basis at 600 liters per day. Outside the U.S., the per capita usage amounts to 50 liters a day and growing.
These shortages, combined with certain geographic considerations have the potential to fuel hostility and potential warfare over this precious resource. In fact, more than a dozen countries receive more than half of their water from rivers that cross borders of neighboring countries viewed as hostile. Of those, seven countries receive 75% or more of their fresh water from rivers flowing out of often hostile upstream neighbors. These include Botswana, Bulgaria, Cambodia, the Congo, Gambia, the Sudan, and Syria.

The Middle East, a region well-known for its political and religious animosities is now witnessing heightened tensions regarding adequate water supplies as well. Israel and Syria have had recently contentious discussions about water supplies while Iraq, Syria and Turkey have exchanged verbal threats over their use of shared rivers. It’s not hard to imagine tensions rising if one country wants to dam a river for hydroelectric purposes that a neighboring country relies on.
The scramble for solutions to the problem is growing apace. One of the more promising solutions already exists in the form of desalinization plants of which there are 11,000 in operation around the world. The biggest issue with these plants is the cost per gallon of desalinized water. The answer to the cost issue could lie in the advance of alternative energy solutions which could run the plants with renewable energy sources such as solar, tidal, wind, and/or wave power.  Advances in these solutions will bring their costs down which in turn could make desalinization both a clean and cost effective proposition.

About Anthony Ricigliano